MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/10: The Grind Down

May 2024 · 6 minute read

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule forWednesday, August 10. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.

CIN vs. NYM

MLB DFS Analysis:T.J. Zeuch (RHP | 250)

5200DK (10.40% of cap) /5600FD (16.00% of cap) / 26 Y (16.00%of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
ProjectionsProj.Statcast MetricsStats
PlateIQ DK Proj.3.91Exit Velocity91.40
PlateIQ FD Proj.11.97EV PercentileNA
PlateIQ Y Proj.4.58Barrel %15.80%
DK Pts$0.75Barrel PercentileNA
FD Pts$2.14Statcast Hard%49.10%
Y Pts$1.76Hard% PercentileNA
See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM: Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. LProj.Key Stats vs. RStats
Games3.00Games3.00
Expected L6.00Expected R3.00
xFIP L8.33xFIP R5.91
K/9 L2.08K/9 R5.91
BB/9 L8.31BB/9 R4.22
GB/FB L1.43GB/FB R1.06
HR/9 L4.15HR/9 R3.38
Hard% L26.30%Hard% R47.40%
See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM: Try PlateIQ Premium!

Blue Jays legend TJ Zeuch is still at it, as he’ll start today for the Reds at Citi Field. This will be the right-hander’s first MLB outing of the year, and just the 14th of his career. Zeuch has a 14.1% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate through those first 13 big-league games, so we’re not talking about a very good pitcher here. The early slate does actually have quite a few actual good pitchers, so you know what to do here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Zeuch.

MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | -313)

8400DK (16.80% of cap) /8400FD (24.00% of cap) / 40 Y (24.00%of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ CategoryProj.Statcast MetricsStats
PlateIQ DK Proj.18.31Exit Velocity89.30
PlateIQ FD Proj.34.08EV Percentile54
PlateIQ Y Proj.20.37Barrel %9.20%
DK Pts$2.18Barrel Percentile67
FD Pts$4.06Statcast Hard%40.30%
Y Pts$5.09Hard% Percentile60
See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM: Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. LProj.Key Stats vs. RStats
Games48.00Games3.00
Expected L6.00Expected R3.00
xFIP L4.59xFIP R4.03
K/9 L8.22K/9 R7.38
BB/9 L3.94BB/9 R2.08
GB/FB L1.00GB/FB R1.31
HR/9 L1.26HR/9 R1.15
Hard% L32.00%Hard% R31.40%
See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM: Try PlateIQ Premium!

lasted all of 1 inning in his last start against the Braves, but the Reds are not the Braves. Walker is a better real-life pitcher than DFS commodity, with an 18.7% walk rate and a 4.15 SIERA so far this year. Groundballs (47.3%) are really the name of the game here, while the matchup against Cincy is also appealing. This lineup is just extremely awful these days, with a .115 ISO, .277 wOBA, and an ugly 28.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Walker looks like a solid value viable in all formats at $8,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel as a result.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup and salary put Walker squarely in play.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet:CIN Batting

PlayerDK SalaryFD SalaryDK/FD ProjBaseline ISO (L/R)Baseline wOBABarrel%
480030007.92 / 9.890.155 / 0.2030.319 / 0.3497.90%
210022006.87 / 8.570.119 / 0.0990.297 / 0.2843.40%
320027005.89 / 7.380.186 / 0.1060.34 / 0.2474.20%
350028007.68 / 9.980.191 / 0.2430.335 / 0.37315.10%
290024006.27 / 7.820.162 / 0.1340.331 / 0.3127.10%
200022005.64 / 7.180.192 / 0.2040.266 / 0.26812.30%
200022006.73 / 8.670.178 / 0.2080.301 / 0.3225.10%
200025005.04 / 6.230.174 / 0.150.283 / 0.267NA
200021004.24 / 5.420.071 / 0.0710.255 / 0.2430.00%
Break down every CIN vs. NYMhitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

The Reds have a 3.35 total this afternoon against Walker and friends, which is hardly a surprise. Walker’s strikeout and groundball stuff has been a bit worse vs. RHBs this season, so you’d probably start with and at the top of the order if you want anything here. for kicks as the third guy in your 3-man. Otherwise, yikes.

Optimal Plays –

Secondary Plays – ,

Stackability – ORANGE

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet:NYM Batting

PlayerDK SalaryFD SalaryDK/FD ProjBaseline ISO (L/R)Baseline wOBABarrel%
Brandon Nimmo5100320010.49 / 13.740.161 / 0.1560.346 / 0.3415.70%
550036009.95 / 12.660.172 / 0.1530.344 / 0.3187.50%
6000390010.63 / 13.990.187 / 0.2010.317 / 0.3368.50%
6000420010.11 / 13.450.29 / 0.2670.373 / 0.33614.50%
3900300010.18 / 13.760.141 / 0.2360.284 / 0.3699.80%
460028008.78 / 11.210.092 / 0.1450.31 / 0.3533.20%
480029008.99 / 11.650.17 / 0.2230.283 / 0.33810.30%
260022007.07 / 9.260.05 / 0.0660.282 / 0.3012.20%
380021006.25 / 8.040.131 / 0.1210.273 / 0.2696.50%
Break down every CIN vs. NYMhitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Zeuch has walked more lefties than he’s whiffed in his small major-league sample to date, while a 14.9% strikeout rate vs. RHBs isn’t much more encouraging. He has shown a groundball lean, however, so the Mets that hit the ball in the air look like the priorities in your stacks. , , and fit the bill with the platoon advantage, while is an obvious priority if you can spend up over Vogelbach at first base. , Brandon Nimmo, and are the next stops. The Mets (5.87) have the highest run total of the early slate, so I’d imagine this will be the closest thing we have to a chalk offense this afternoon.

Optimal Plays – / , , ,

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo,

Stackability – GREEN

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